Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Is today that day?
A few weeks back I predicted that our favorite bobbleheaded cupcake of a regional councillor would declare her intentions for a mayoral run on Cinco de Mayo (May 5th) and it never materialized. I ain't a gambling kinda chiquita but my instincts tell me that today could be that day. I figured that perhaps that our little prima donna passed on a Cinco de Mayo announcement because I called her out but I don't know that I'm going to take any credit here for the blackjack bluffing that is going on. Here's why.....
There has been a spate of regional newsletters that have popped up over the past week from a couple of other regional councillors, neither of whom have yet to declare their electoral intentions. The spring/summer newsletters have been produced and put together by the Region of Peel which means these politicians got some really good quality, well laid out and strong visual materials put together for them courtesy of the region and the taxpayers. So here's the thing, if you are an incumbent who had declared your candidacy the region would not be permitted to produce said newsletter. Once a candidate declares it changes the parameters. So it goes without saying that the bulk of the regional councillors will wait for the release of the spring/summer newsletter that will hail all their wonderful work and achievements before making their intentions for re-election official. It's basically a very prudent and smart move because it is pre-emptive strike to a campaign without the costs having to be paid for through the campaign. Makes sense, right?
What do you think is gonna turn up in my mailbox today? Oh gee, me wonders. Could it be a paid non political announcement on the virtues of my regional councillor? Any takers on this bet?
So here's what I think the strategy for a mayoral kick at the can by a regional cupcake might look like. She'll count on every single vote out of Bolton. Automatically assuming that because she's Bolton based everyone here will support her and be anti-Morrison. Well that thinking is a mistake. Let's look at the numbers from the 2006 election. Garry Moore, also a Bolton based mayoral candidate basically took about 2,200 votes and Mayor Morrison took around 1,750 votes. That really isn't all that much of a difference. Ms. Groves, in total, had 3,233 votes casted in her reelection bid. Across the town Mayor Morrison had a total of 7,150 votes so even if Councillor Groves still grabbed up all her 3,200 votes she's basically got to find another 4,000 votes elsewhere in Caledon. This is going to be interesting.
This will be a vicious campaign,not only here in Bolton, but especially on the western side of Caledon where I suspect Ms. Groves is not particularly welcome or liked. Nor is she associated to a major party as Garry Moore was (can you say Liberal red). Western Caledon will be tough sledding and everyone knows that a campaign is won at the doors and on the street. They will be hard at work to try and discredit Marolyn Morrison. I am of a mind that the Groves machinery will focus in on the Valleywood settlement. Valleywood is by six degrees of separation associated to the Bolton Wanderers Soccer club, in which Ms. Groves is well ensconced. Hard to say how well this will serve her. Not all members of the soccer community are Italian and I suspect that the Groves campaign will be hoping to cash in on their popularity in the Italian community although I've never quite understood that logic. I just don't buy in to that fuggedaboutit way of thinking. I also believe trying to play that Italian cultural card is a lame assed move on any candidate's part. I actually laughed aloud upon hearing someone tell me that Terry Groves is claiming italian heritage. Budda boom budda bing. Too funny.
Anyone who is familiar with the dogsled team that drives the Groves campaign knows that the lead pack dog for this group is her husband, Terry. He's a pedal to the metal kind of guy and last time I saw him I couldn't help but to notice he's slim, trim and in fighting shape. He's a walking UFC machine looking to bring the big smackdown against his nemesis and arch enemy, Mayor Morrison, against whom he is still embroiled in some over the top, absolutely ridiculous lawsuit. Not good for the street cred, none the less T-Groves will turn this race into an Iditarod run. He is a force to be reckoned with, no question, but to that end I say never under estimate the voting smarts of the western Caledonites. He'll find himself in farm country and after that stupidness with lawsuits, in particular his bad behaviour against one of their own, westerner & respected farmer, Anne Livingston, he won't be warmly embraced. His rep for having a loud mouth and big attitude won't wash well with the other side of town which is why I'm convinced they'll anchor a western strategy out of Valleywood.
Have you noticed how glued to the hip of Tony "Always a bridesmaid, never an elected bride" Viola that Ms. Groves is? This has always been a great concern for me. Ms. Groves eats way too much Italian food down in the four corners of Bolton and that over priced eatery with its mediocre food has become her regular haunt to hold her wine and dine location for potential supporters. I suspect if Mister Vee gets behind this mayoral candidate she'll be hoping to reign in the votes he managed to garner in his non election election from 2006. I have wondered aloud about TV's election intentions especially knowing his distaste for Miz Nancy Jean. If he campaigns in Wards 3&4, creating a tandem campaign for himself & the cupcake, it could add another 1,500 votes to her bottom line.
All this speculation and we haven't even talked about the senior citizens and the youth vote. I also think we'll see the emergence of the viral campaign which could become an interesting part of this election too. Oh by the way, I called it right on the Marky Mark "beam me up Scotty" Pavillons declaration. It's a regional run for the former Caledon Citizen editor. Betcha that's got Ms. Amanda Squires squirming on her wobbly little pedestal. By the way, neither Mark or Amanda is Italian although Mark was employed by a certain, high profile developer, with Bolton in his view finder, who is Italian. Does that immediately give him "la familia" cred? One wonders. I'll definitely be having a look at Mr. Pee's post electoral donation list.
I think the May Vic weekend is the cornerstone date for this year's election potentials. Stay tuned for the next installment of "As the Town of Caledon Turns"
That's it for me. Happy Hump Day peeps and may your long weekend be filled with sunshine, good food, lotsa fireworks and of course....a drop 'o the grape! Peace out.